COULD WSPR BE SEARCHED FOR US $1.5 - $2.5 MILLION ??

 

GROK:

The hypothetical cheapest cost for a confined 30 km² AUV magnetic-only (mag-only) swarm search, accepting the claimed WSPR-derived location precision (e.g., around ~29°S 100°E at ~3,750–4,000 m depth in the southern Indian Ocean per Richard Godfrey’s analyses), would likely fall in the range of roughly US$1.5–4 million.
This is a very small area compared to prior MH370 searches (which covered tens or hundreds of thousands of km²). The dominant expenses are vessel mobilization/transit to this remote location and the full operational day rates for deep-water AUV assets—not the search time itself, which is minimal.
Key Assumptions for a Minimal-Cost Operation

• Area & method: 30 km² box (or equivalent tight search zone) using only magnetometers on AUVs (no side-scan sonar, cameras, or sub-bottom profilers). Mag-only allows potentially wider line spacing than sonar because aircraft wreckage produces a strong ferrous anomaly detectable from greater distances when the AUV flies low (e.g., 10–50 m altitude). Realistic effective swath ~200–500 m per line (conservative for large metal debris field; UXO/wreckage surveys show anomaly half-widths scale with sensor-to-target distance).
• Swarm size: 2–6 deep-rated AUVs (e.g., equivalents to HUGIN, REMUS 6000-class, or Oceaneering-style vehicles rated to 4,000+ m) operating in coordinated parallel lawnmower patterns. A true “swarm” adds redundancy and speed but increases upfront logistics vs. a single AUV. One AUV could technically cover the area in ~1–2 days; a small swarm reduces it to hours.
• Coverage rate: ~3–10+ km² per AUV per day (at 3–4 knots survey speed with mag swath and ~70% efficiency for turns/overlaps). Far faster than typical side-scan sonar surveys.
• Depth & environment: Full-ocean-depth capable AUVs required; terrain may include canyons/volcanoes (per WSPR claims), but mag sensors tolerate this better than sonar.
• Logistics: Standalone commercial operation (no piggybacking on other expeditions). Launch/recovery from a DP2/DP3 survey or OSV-class vessel out of Fremantle/Perth (~800–1,000 nm transit, ~3 days one-way at 12 knots). Includes mobilization/demob, crew, data QC, and basic anomaly processing/reporting. No ROV follow-up or recovery assumed—just detection.

Rough Cost Breakdown (Cheapest Realistic Scenario)

• Vessel charter + AUV ops day rate: ~US$80,000–100,000+ per day (full package, based on commercial AUV survey benchmarks like Oceaneering’s nominal rates for deep-water work; includes vessel, AUV fleet, crew, fuel, and basic sensors).
• Transit & on-site time: 6 days round-trip transit + 3–7 days on-site (search + contingencies/launches) + buffer = ~12–20 total vessel days → US$1–2 million.
• AUV/magnetometer-specific extras: Integrated mag sensors (e.g., fluxgate or cesium-vapor) are low-cost to add/rent (~hundreds per day each), but deep AUV rental/ops add to the daily rate. Swarm coordination software and positioning (USBL/DVL/INS) are standard.
• Mobilization/demob fees, data processing, contingencies, insurance, permits: US$300k–1M (one-time; includes getting assets to Australia, weather delays, and post-mission mag data inversion for anomaly identification).
• Total lowest plausible: ~US$1.5–2.5 million if a provider optimizes (small swarm, minimal days, efficient routing). Upper end (~US$4M) if using a larger commercial fleet, longer contingencies, or premium deep-water assets.

Why Not Cheaper?

• No shallow-water shortcuts: 4,000 m depth rules out cheap portable AUVs (<US$250k purchase; limited to ~300 m). Deep-rated systems are expensive.
• Remote location: Transit is unavoidable and costly; no nearby ports/infrastructure.
• “Swarm” requirement: Multiple AUVs raise coordination costs but cut calendar time (vessel still has to be on-site).
• Regulatory/safety: Commercial operators require permits, insurance, and experienced crews. Academic or “DIY” setups are not realistic for this depth/area.
• No “no-find, no-fee” for tiny area: Providers like Ocean Infinity use this model for massive searches (their daily coverage is high, but they wouldn’t deploy for 30 km² without a large upfront or success fee).

Ways to Potentially Reduce Costs Further (Hypothetical)

• Piggyback on a nearby scientific/commercial cruise (could drop to <US$1M if vessel time is already funded).
• Minimal swarm (2 AUVs) with aggressive line spacing optimized purely for large ferrous anomalies.
• Contract a specialist like Oceaneering, Teledyne, or similar for a turnkey “mag-only debris survey” package.

This is an order-of-magnitude estimate based on public industry benchmarks for deep-water AUV surveys (pipeline/UXO/wreckage work). Actual quotes would vary by provider, exact timing, and weather. A real bid would be needed for precision, but the small area makes this far cheaper than any prior MH370 effort.