MAG SWARM STILL BEST BET.
GROK:
The latest official updates (as of March 8–13, 2026) from Ocean Infinity, the Malaysian Air Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB), and independent analysts like Victor Iannello confirm that the 2025–2026 campaign has concluded without findings.
Ocean Infinity's vessel departed the search area on January 23, 2026, after covering approximately 7,571 km² (in two phases: brief in March 2025, main from late December 2025 to mid-January 2026). This was roughly half of the originally proposed/approved 15,000 km² block, with operations repeatedly disrupted by poor weather (high waves, storms forcing suspensions and early recovery of AUVs).
Ocean Infinity's CEO Oliver Plunkett stated: "despite all that effort, we haven’t been able to find it... we can say with confidence that it isn’t where we looked. That matters – it brings clarity, and it will help those continuing to study the evidence refine their thinking and shape future search strategies."
The Malaysian government and OI remain in discussions for potential resumption (contract runs to ~June 2026 under no-find-no-fee terms), but no immediate restart is confirmed—seasonal weather in the southern Indian Ocean is now unfavorable, and the vessel has shifted to other commercial work.
Probability that Ocean Infinity simply missed the wreck in the ~7,571 km² actually scanned: still estimated at 10–20% (unchanged from prior assessment, with the same moderate uncertainty). This range holds because:
It matches OI's 2024-proposed/2025–2026 area almost exactly, and the partial execution only eliminated part of it—leaving your plan's emphasis on completing the unsearched half (phased 5–8k km² starts at core hotspot + gaps + drift box) as the logical, data-driven next move before any major shifts (e.g., northward to 30–33°S, southward extensions, or alternative hypotheses like WSPR-derived areas some independents push).
Your magnetometer-swarm refinement is particularly strong here:
The scanned portion is largely cleared with high confidence, but the block as a whole is far from exhausted.
A "simple miss" in what was actually imaged is low-probability (~10–20%); the real opportunity lies in the unsearched/gappy pockets inside the same high-prob zone you describe.
This is still where the evidence converges strongest—your plan to finish it with a mag-focused swarm is smart, practical, and the clearest path forward before broadening or pivoting.
MAG SWARMIf fresh data (e.g., refined drift/BFO) emerges, it could tweak sub-priorities, but right now, this block is the place to double down.
Ocean Infinity's vessel departed the search area on January 23, 2026, after covering approximately 7,571 km² (in two phases: brief in March 2025, main from late December 2025 to mid-January 2026). This was roughly half of the originally proposed/approved 15,000 km² block, with operations repeatedly disrupted by poor weather (high waves, storms forcing suspensions and early recovery of AUVs).
Ocean Infinity's CEO Oliver Plunkett stated: "despite all that effort, we haven’t been able to find it... we can say with confidence that it isn’t where we looked. That matters – it brings clarity, and it will help those continuing to study the evidence refine their thinking and shape future search strategies."
The Malaysian government and OI remain in discussions for potential resumption (contract runs to ~June 2026 under no-find-no-fee terms), but no immediate restart is confirmed—seasonal weather in the southern Indian Ocean is now unfavorable, and the vessel has shifted to other commercial work.
Probability that Ocean Infinity simply missed the wreck in the ~7,571 km² actually scanned: still estimated at 10–20% (unchanged from prior assessment, with the same moderate uncertainty). This range holds because:
- High-confidence aspects of their coverage — Systematic AUV lawnmower patterns with Kongsberg HUGINs (HISAS sonar + magnetometers) in prioritized sub-zones around the UGIB/IG hotspot (~34.23°S 93.78°E) and outward extensions. In benign terrain, POD for a 777 debris field remains >90–95% based on AF447 precedents, ATSB test validations, and OI's own QA processes. Their public confidence ("it isn’t where we looked") reflects post-mission analysis ruling out significant targets in scanned areas.
- Reasons for residual miss risk (10–20%) — Steep slopes/canyons south of the LEP (flagged by Iannello since 2023), acoustic shadows, variable AUV altitude, sediment effects over 12 years, and weather-forced compromises (reduced overlap, lower-res lines in spots). Some gaps or low-quality strips likely persist even in "covered" zones, though OI's tech minimizes this compared to 2014–2018 efforts.
- No major new evidence of a miss — No analyst (including Iannello's March 2026 posts) has presented data suggesting systematic failure in the scanned portion. Instead, focus shifts to the ~7,429 km² unsearched within the original block (plus any residual low-POD strips) carrying the bulk of remaining probability (~40–60% of prior 95% contours from integrated models).
It matches OI's 2024-proposed/2025–2026 area almost exactly, and the partial execution only eliminated part of it—leaving your plan's emphasis on completing the unsearched half (phased 5–8k km² starts at core hotspot + gaps + drift box) as the logical, data-driven next move before any major shifts (e.g., northward to 30–33°S, southward extensions, or alternative hypotheses like WSPR-derived areas some independents push).
Your magnetometer-swarm refinement is particularly strong here:
- Wider line spacing (200–400 m) + ferrous focus would efficiently infill/verify the remaining ~7.5k km² + any questionable sonar strips at lower cost/risk.
- It complements sonar by better detecting buried/partially obscured metal in complex terrain/sediment—ideal for the steep-slope and outward glide-allowance zones OI partially covered but weather-limited.
- Phased execution (start with 5–8k km² LEP core + south slope + drift corridor) keeps it cost-effective and adaptive.
The scanned portion is largely cleared with high confidence, but the block as a whole is far from exhausted.
A "simple miss" in what was actually imaged is low-probability (~10–20%); the real opportunity lies in the unsearched/gappy pockets inside the same high-prob zone you describe.
This is still where the evidence converges strongest—your plan to finish it with a mag-focused swarm is smart, practical, and the clearest path forward before broadening or pivoting.
MAG SWARMIf fresh data (e.g., refined drift/BFO) emerges, it could tweak sub-priorities, but right now, this block is the place to double down.
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