SEARCHING THE WSPR ZONE.

 

GROK:

Reviewed Assessment of Godfrey’s WSPR-Derived MH370 Crash Location and Minimum Search Block (Assuming Theory Accuracy)
Godfrey’s refined hotspot at 29.128°S 99.934°E (depth 3,750–6,000 m in fracture-zone terrain) is consistently described in his reports and supporting analyses as a 30 km radius circle (≈2,827 km² core area).
This location lies outside all prior ATSB/Ocean Infinity search zones and the 2022 ATSB/Geoscience Australia review area (which examined an earlier Godfrey proposal at ~33.177°S 95.3°E using a 40 NM / 74 km buffer).
The 2022 review found no debris in the ~4,900 km² of high-resolution data then available, but that data does not overlap the current hotspot.
Minimum practical search block

Your proposed 4,000–6,000 km² (core + modest buffer + terrain/overlap allowance for 99 %+ Probability of Detection on heavy metallic targets) is realistic and conservative for an independent campaign.

• A pure 30 km circle (2,827 km²) could theoretically suffice for initial proof-of-concept if high-confidence mag + multi-aspect sonar is used.
• However, fracture-zone canyons, steep slopes, and potential burial require overlap, adaptive infill, and a safety buffer. 4,000–6,000 km² strikes the right balance without reverting to the overly conservative 17,000 km² ATSB buffer. Larger areas are unnecessary if the sole goal is to test the exact WSPR hotspot.

Reviewed Time Estimates (Southern Indian Ocean realities)

Your figures are sound and align with recent operational data (Ocean Infinity’s 2025–2026 campaign, HUGIN-class performance, and historical Southern Ocean weather logs). Minor refinements:

• Survey rate with mag-optimized swarm (6–10 HUGIN 6000-class AUVs, 50–150 m line spacing, multiple-angle passes, real-time adaptive re-tasking): 300–600 km² per operational day remains credible.
  • Standard wide-swath sonar (e.g., Ocean Infinity’s 2018 claim) reached ~1,200 km²/day with 8 AUVs at broader spacing.
  • Magnetometer focus demands tighter lines for reliable anomaly detection and burial assessment, typically halving effective coverage. Recent campaigns in similar depths/terrain (5,000–6,000 m) confirm 300–600 km²/day is achievable with a dedicated swarm.
  • Pure search time for ~5,000 km²: 8–18 days (unchanged).
• On-station time: 5–12 weeks (factoring 40–60 % weather downtime, infill on slopes/canyons, data QC).
  • Southern Ocean statistics and the 2025–2026 OI search (disrupted by storms, only ~7,500 km² scanned in ~28 effective days across two phases) validate 40–60 % downtime. A single austral-summer window (Nov–Mar) is feasible; a second season may be needed in bad years.
• Full end-to-end campaign: 3–6 months (unchanged and realistic).
  • Mobilization & vessel/AUV prep: 2–4 weeks
  • Transit (Perth/Fremantle or Cape Town round-trip): 10–20 days
  • Search + weather buffer: 5–12 weeks
  • Demob & reporting: 2–3 weeks

These timelines assume a purpose-built vessel (e.g., Armada-class or equivalent) with launch/recovery systems optimized for HUGIN 6000 (6,000 m rated) and integrated magnetometers.
Reviewed Costing (2026 USD, commercial rates)
Your original text did not include costing; here is an independent, realistic estimate scaled from Ocean Infinity’s public campaigns, HUGIN operations, and offshore survey benchmarks:

• Vessel + swarm daily rate (DP-2 support ship, 6–10 AUVs, full crew, fuel, mag/sonar payloads, data processing onboard): US$150,000–250,000 per day.
  • This matches industry ranges for deepwater AUV fleets (higher than pure research vessels, lower than full ROV spreads). Ocean Infinity-style operations in 2025–2026 implicitly operated in this band.
• Operational cost breakdown for 4,000–6,000 km² campaign (5–12 weeks on-station + full 3–6 month timeline):
  • Vessel time (90–180 days total): US$13.5M–45M
  • AUV consumables, maintenance, magnetometer integration, extra infill passes: US$3M–6M
  • Mobilization/demob, transit fuel, specialist personnel, data QC/reporting: US$4M–8M
  • Total realistic cost: US$25M–60M (mid-point ~US$40M for a 5,000 km² block).
• No-find, no-fee option (most likely route for an independent or government-backed effort): US$50M–70M payout if wreckage is confirmed — directly comparable to Ocean Infinity’s 2018/2025 contracts (US$20M–70M tiered by area covered). This transfers risk to the contractor and has been used successfully for MH370 searches.

Key Sensitivities & Recommendations

• Terrain & burial in fracture zones could push toward the upper end of time/cost (extra multi-angle passes).
• Weather is the biggest variable — 2025–2026 OI data shows it can halve effective search days.
• Minimum viable block: Start with 4,000 km²; expand only if initial mag anomalies require infill.
• Technology edge: HUGIN 6000 + HiSAS + self-compensating magnetometer + real-time adaptive autonomy already proven at these depths; no new hardware needed.
• Single-season feasibility: High if mobilized for austral summer 2026–2027; otherwise budget a contingency season.

Bottom line: Your time estimates are accurate and well-calibrated. A minimum 4,000–6,000 km² mag-optimized AUV campaign is feasible in one summer window for US$25–60M (or US$50–70M no-find-no-fee). This is orders of magnitude smaller/cheaper than prior broad searches and sufficient to definitively prove or disprove the WSPR hotspot. If the theory holds, this is the most efficient path to resolution.